Comments on Martin Andrade Blogs Here No More: Amy Klobuchar and Crime This is probably going to...

Here's what I wanted to look at -- the way to chec...

2006-09-11T15:11:00.000Z

Here's what I wanted to look at -- the way to check the trend is to see whether the demographic trend changed. In general across the US, the # of males ages 15-24 declined in the 1990s, leading in most places to a decline in crime rates. HenCo was part of that. So I checked the data on 2000-05 via the state demographer's office. Sure enough, it's STILL declining (by about 4%.) So the increase isn't due to those types of factors (though immigrant and minority populations of young males has increased.)

Graphs are efficient and orderly, lists are produc...

2006-09-11T05:25:00.000Z

Graphs are efficient and orderly, lists are products of bureacratic...er..never mind. Talking to a future lawyer about bureacracy, red tape and TPS Reports would do me about as much good as putting Tony Batista on the Olympic Hurdling team.

Well, since you hate listing, at least I know that...

2006-09-08T21:24:00.000Z

Well, since you hate listing, at least I know that I annoyed you while complimenting you. That takes the sting out of things a little bit. Also, I didn't actually "suggest" that the Dems are swinging back into control of the state, just asking the question. I've seen very little about most of the Minnesota races (Klobuchar/Kennedy being the big exception) and was seriously wondering if there was anything else indicating that this was a more serious concern for the Reps. You clarified that quite nicely, thanks.

Oh yeah...how can you hate listing? It's so efficient and orderly.

Most of the time was absorbed just trying to find ...

2006-09-08T21:08:00.000Z

Most of the time was absorbed just trying to find good numbers and statistics. It's surprising how difficult it is to find good statistics from the government.

15 hours...holy crap. It will pay off if people r...

2006-09-08T19:55:00.000Z

15 hours...holy crap. It will pay off if people realize how much you have blazed the trail on this issue. All I did is what I try to do...make people think about what they believe and be honest/fair/true/consistent in their argument.

I think I'm going to have to write an "executive s...

2006-09-08T18:32:00.000Z

I think I'm going to have to write an "executive summary" to answer some of the objections as well as to clarify my findings. But first...

Tony-

Thanks for the kudos, though I think you deserve more kudos for giving me the...motivation...to spend almost 15 hours researching and writing this post (no BS, 15 hours).

I tried to come to the most fair conclusion I could.

JohnWayne-

I think Ramsey County is probably also dealing with the prison population issues as well.

ThePete-

It is fair to note that property crime and other forms of non-violent crime are down. My answer to your criticism would be: We must prioritize resources, violent crime creates a direct threat to the lives of citizens and should be the highest priority of our elected officials. I'll probably address more fully your suggestion in the exec sum.

JST-

1) I hate it when people list things

2) thanks for the compliments

3) I agree, we shouldn't be shocked when politicians take credit for stuff they didn't do.

4) You're right, plea bargaining is epidemic amongst many prosecuters, I understand it's not limited to AmyKlo. Is it worse than average in her case though? I say it's quite possible.

5) When will this list end?

6) It's easy to say Kennedy isn't catching on, therefore MN has stopped moving to the center. However your suggestion avoids the fact that Pawlenty is cruising to re-election, GOP will probably hold on to their 4 congressional seats and most of the state offices should stay in GOP hands (Kiffmeyer the Sec of State might have problems with re-election, but we might actually win the AG spot).

The big question in the State House, and I just don't know about it. I'm not privy to any recent internal polling. If and when I get an idea I'll blog about it.

Thanks for the comments all, please feel free to offer more criticisms, I want this to be a tight and definitive post.

Marty,Great post, very informative and well writte...

2006-09-08T16:25:00.000Z

Marty,

Great post, very informative and well written.

A couple of thoughts:

1.) Political candidates claiming credit for things that they aren't remotely responsible for? Crikey, who'd have thunk it? Politicians have been doing this for ages, and will continue to do it until there are no more politicians (which will probably be around the time that bird flu makes politicians rather unnecessary). With the rise of blogs, there are millions more who are looking at and critiquing their claims, however, and that means that they can get away with less. This is a good argument for why blogs have a useful role to play in politics. The average voter doesn't have the time to parse all of the information, so well-written comments such as yours do a great service to the electorate.

2.) Just a general rant: pleas are much too common, no matter who the prosecutor is. DA's and judges both want to clear the docket because there is so much work, and public defenders are happy to oblige. Klobuchar may be plea-happy, but so are many of her peers.

3.) Just a question about this race: why has Kennedy not caught on like many thought he would? I thought as early as 2 years ago, when it was clear that Kennedy was going to run, that he would make an excellent candidate, and would probably beat Dayton easily. Then Dayton decided not to run, and the strategy appears to have paid off for his party, since Klobuchar has been a force since she emerged as the candidate. Why is this? What the heck happened to Kennedy? And is this a sign that Minnesota's shift to equipoise between the parties is starting to tip back towards the Dems?

Oh, yes yes. your post is very accurte, that is no...

2006-09-08T16:24:00.000Z

Oh, yes yes. your post is very accurte, that is not in doubt.

But if you are pointing out JUST violent crime, and Amy is taking credit for crime (in general) going down as well as the statement that
"serious crime in Hennepin County has fallen significantly due to the work of her office"

Which that line I love by the way... There is no such thing as a county report for "serious crime", just what we feel is serious, as apposed them just saying "Crime." I feel that "violent crime" is "serious" however others would feel that all crime has an equil level of "seriousness" or perhaps the largest types of crime comitted is the most "serious" part of crime

Seriously.

The Pete:I only put the crime rate-US graph in the...

2006-09-08T16:05:00.000Z

The Pete:

I only put the crime rate-US graph in there for reference. Sorry for the confusion. I did have the Violent crime graph for both the US and Minneapolis in the post. The focus of the post was Violent crime (Violent crime being more serious than petty and white collar crime IMHO).

My conclusions deal directly and only with violent crime. You can see from comparing the graphs that there was a consistent drop in violent crime from 1992-2001 in Minneapolis and from 1992-2004 in the U.S. However, I state in the post that it is not the fact that crime dropped and them went up. It is the fact that (violent) crime dropped and went back up exceeding what would be expected from national trends.

Here, Marty, is a 2003 crime fact sheet from Henne...

2006-09-08T15:45:00.000Z

Here, Marty, is a 2003 crime fact sheet from Hennepin County this shows a drop in overall crime for the entire county and is more spicific then that image I sent.

Marty:Do you have a graph showing the Crime Rate i...

2006-09-08T15:36:00.000Z

Marty:
Do you have a graph showing the Crime Rate in Minneapolis instead of just Violent Crime?
Because its only fair to show this if your comapiring the US National average of Violent Crime rate and Crime Rate.

This goes through 2003:
http://minneapolisfed.org/pubs/fedgaz/05-09/CrimeRate.jpg

Don't get me wrong. Far be it for me to support a democrat, but until reciently, the overall crime rate has gone down (not by much) under Klobochar's control.
To finish the graph too, crime from 2003 to 2004 has gone down 4.6% and the 05 stats will not be out till october.

Congratulations, Marty...on two very important thi...

2006-09-08T14:33:00.000Z

Congratulations, Marty...on two very important things on this topic.

FIRST: You are the first (from what I can tell) to actually connect the dots between crime and the County DA. Under your thesis there is a clear connection and validates your conclusions. This is something I have not seen anywhere else and is necessary for the validity of tying crime to Klobuchar. Additionally you made a great case why she could legitimately be blamed for the crime rise while not credited for the preceding crime drop.

SECOND: You should take credit for what seems to be absolutely the most accurate statement on this issue, "Amy Klobuchar hasn’t helped the crime problem in her district at all." I have thought and after your post continue to believe that this is the correct statement. Klobuchar has not helped with the crime rate drop, she is not helping to curb the crime rate, but there is too much else in the way to honestly say Klobuchar hurt the crime rate. "Ineffective" is the best critique in her impact on crime.

Good job, Marty.

That's some excellent posting, Marty.The retort Kl...

2006-09-08T14:27:00.000Z

That's some excellent posting, Marty.
The retort Klobochar maintains about the judges is baloney. As you mentioned, the vast majority of cases are indeed plea bargained, with the prosecutor setting the terms. Can she really say that we've had Republican governors exclusively since 1991? No.
There is some validity to the prison population argument, which is avoided by both candidates. Right about the time when crime came back up, (~2002)
drug offenders surpassed sex offenders in our prison system. Increased drug prosecution with meth related offenders helped. So, prison space is a concern for some sentencing. But heck, I say ship them down to Angola and pay the state of Louisiana, it's cheaper than boarding them here for about 60K a year. Or simply consider additional prison construction a necessary expenditure.

So, ignoring the prison space and judge rebuttals, yes, the liberal polices of A Klo and RT can be given proportionate blame. Others also add another dimension, that being the upstanding people that have been coming up here from Milwaukee, Gary, Chicago, etc. It’s been happening for some time, but the last year has seen a huge spike. Many new suspects are of out-of-state origin. Rambix covers this on his blog.