Amy Klobuchar and Crime

This is probably going to be a continuing issue throughout the 2006 Minnesota Senate Campaign. Amy Klobuchar has been the District Attorney in Hennepin County since 1999. Between 1999 and 2006 crime has gone down in Hennepin County. However, violent crime in Minneapolis has gone up every year since 2001. Some bloggers such as KvM and Rambix have suggested the recent increase in crime has been the lack of aggressive prosecutions out of the DA’s office under Klobuchar’s watch. Liberals suggest it is because of judges who don’t follow sentence guidelines. Tony Garcia, on the radio show last week suggested the recent increase in crime was probably only part of a national trend.

I set out this week to figure out if there are any conclusions that can be drawn between Klobuchar’s work at the DA’s office and the violent crime rates in Hennepin County and Minneapolis. Klobuchar has taken (some) credit for the reduction in crime:

Amy was first elected as Hennepin County Attorney in 1998. During her tenure in office, serious crime in Hennepin County has fallen significantly due to the work of her office, police departments, local businesses, and people in the community. In 2002, Amy was re-elected to a second, four-year term without any opposition.

The first thing we need to do in our analysis is take a look at some graphs.
Crime in Minneapolis:



The graph shows us that crime went down the first year or so of Klobuchar’s term as DA. However, the graph also shows us that crime was already falling before she took office. If anything, the slope of the graph changes about the time Klobuchar takes office. What the change in slope means is crime falls at a slower rate than it was before Klobuchar took office. Also, if Klobuchar is to take credit for the dramatic decrease in violent crime in the first 18 months of her term, will she take responsibility for the last four years of crime increases?

I’m getting ahead of myself a little bit. We should first take a look at the national trends in crime:



And violent crime:



I found those graphs from a Utah government website, so just try to ignore the Utah statistics and focus on the U.S. numbers. As we can see from the graph, violent crime in the US has gone down every year since the early 1990’s. Klobuchar can clearly not take any credit for those numbers, nor do I really think she can take credit for the reduction in crime the first 18 months she was in office. However, we also see a slope change in the US violent crime graph in 2001-2002. This corresponds to the leveling off in the Minneapolis crime graph. There is no change in slope before 2001 to compare to the change in slope in the Minneapolis graph.
It should be noted that crime this year is up for the US on average and up for the Midwest:

The FBI released the Preliminary Annual Uniform Crime Report for 2005 today, which showed a mixed direction in crime nationwide: the number of violent crime offenses rose 2.5 percent, but the number of property crime offenses decreased 1.6 percent when compared with data from 2004.

…

The Nation’s four regions all saw increases in violent crime in 2005. The Midwest experienced the steepest increase, 5.7 percent.

Minneapolis’ violent crime rate was rising even when national numbers were still falling:

The nationwide increase in violent crime reversed a five-year downward trend, but these crimes are more than 25 percent below the numbers reported in 1992, the start of a years-long decline.

So, we should honestly have expected some increase in crime this year just based on national numbers. So how does Minneapolis compare to the nation and the Midwest?

An FBI report to be released Monday will say that violent crime reports in Minneapolis increased more last year than any other Midwest city and that the jump is among the tops in the United States.

The crimes of homicide, rape, aggravated assault and robbery increased by 35 percent from 2004, compared to an average 5 percent increase for cities of similar size to Minneapolis across the nation, according to FBI crime statistics given to interim Police Chief Tim Dolan on Friday. Violent crime rose an average of 2 percent nationwide.

Wikipedia notes some issues with the crime numbers:

The FBI released data Tuesday June 13, 2006 indicating that violent crime surged 35.5 percent in Minneapolis in 2005, but the city's Police Department said a computer glitch grossly exaggerated what was actually a 15 percent jump from 2004. A 15 percent increase is still six times the 2.5 percent national rise in murders, rapes, robberies and aggravated assaults in 2005, figures disclosed in preliminary data from the FBI's Uniform Crime Report. On the downside, violent crime in Minneapolis has increased in every year since 2001. Plus, the data come as the city has grappled with two high-profile homicides in the Downtown and Uptown areas, spreading anxiety among some residents and leaders. A 35.5 percent increase in violent crime in Minneapolis would have marked the biggest rise among U.S. cities with populations in the range of 350,000 to 400,000. Interim Police Chief Tim Dolan attributed that error to a tight FBI reporting deadline that did not leave time for a department analyst to cross-check the data

The issue appears to be unresolved as of yet. It is clear Minneapolis has outpaced any city or area in the Midwest as far as increases in crime goes. Also, Minneapolis’ increases appear to have outpaced cities of similar size. In article in The Economist notes that medium sized cities have had crime problems greater than other sized cities.

To summarize our findings so far, Minneapolis’ increase in crime is greater than the national average, greater than the regional average and greater than cities of its size. Amy Klobuchar took office when crime was already falling, and while she has seen a net decrease in violent crime over her tenure as District Attorney, there has been an increase in violent crime every year in Minneapolis since 2001.

In my endeavor to find some idea of the cause of the increase in crime in Minneapolis, I found this quote from Minneapolis Mayor R.T. Rybak:

“70% of the people who committed homicide in Minneapolis last year were on Hennepin County probation. The county and the city need to work together, but the county needs to step up.”

Rybak seems to be pointing the finger at the DA’s office for the increase in crime. In the defense of Klobuchar, some commenters on KvM and MDE offer up the fact that Prosecutors don’t sentence criminals nor do they monitor those on probation:

I think that projecting this kind of thing on to the County Attorney’s office is a little misguided. The county attorney doesn’t supervise people on probation, that’s community corrections’ job. Second, the county attorney doesn’t sentence offenders to probation either. Klobuchar’s whole role in the process is to get criminals convicted and push for a suitable sentence. She does not determine the sentence nor is she responsible for those that are on probation.

And:

Amy Klobuchar doesn't place anyone on probation, nor does any other member of her office. They prosecute and get convictions, while judges sentence offenders to, say, probations. With non-DFL governors since 1991, and those governors appointing the judges who are sentencing these people to probation, isn't this really Republicans' fault? Shouldn't Klobuchar be getting the kudos for securing convictions in the first place?

Firstly, prosecutors have the power over how aggressively they seek sentencing, the can bargain for plea deals and they can show incompetence in prosecuting a case. If Amy Klobuchar, as the top dog prosecutor in Hennepin County, maintained an atmosphere of leniency, “tolerance” and “understanding” then it’s quite possible that she was one of the factors contributing to the increase in crime
As for the arguments about how judges might be responsible…

Let’s discuss St. Paul. The reason is St. Paul is in very close proximity to Minneapolis, and it’s in the same state. By comparing the two, we should be able to continue to eliminate possible explanations for the increase in crime. First, one of the commenters said “With non-DFL governors since 1991, and those governors appointing the judges who are sentencing these people to probation, isn't this really Republicans' fault?”

If it is a gubernatorial problem (since 1991) we should see increasing crime since 1991 (we don’t) and we should see the same problem Minneapolis has (crime increases above average) in St. Paul. The short answer is we don’t:

In contrast, violent crime in St. Paul in 2005 rose by a modest 1.5 percent,

This means St. Paul’s violent crime rate increase is far below the national average. St. Paul would have had the same issues with judges, the same issues with correctional facilities and the same issues with budgetary shortfalls from the lack of state funding grants (another excuse offered up by Klobuchar apologists).

There are two culprits left who could be more responsible for the increase in violent crime in Minneapolis than Amy Klobuchar and her office: The Minneapolis City Council and Mayor R.T. Rybak.

This will be more difficult. First, Mayor Rybak:

Rybak's election in 2001 was a shock to many political observers, as he defeated Sharon Sayles Belton, the first African-American and first female mayor of the city, without the help of campaign consultants or a vast war chest of funding. To win, Rybak ran an energetic and highly populist campaign, listening intently to the concerns of residents while he brought his message door-to-door. In the 2001 election, he won 65% of the vote to Belton's 35%—the widest margin in city history for a challenge to an incumbent. He took office in January 2002, and was elected to a second term in November 2005.

Currently in Minneapolis there is no police chief, fire chief or public school superintendent. The fire chief is currently under investigation. The police chief has moved on to San Antonio and the superintendent was forced to leave under questionable circumstances.

Wow, good work Rybak…No Police Chief and no Fire Chief. There is only one problem with blaming R.T. Crime had already started pulling away from the national downward trends before he took office in 2002. In 2001 the national violent crime rate was still dropping while in Minneapolis it had bottomed out and was starting to work its way back up. It is completely possible that R.T. Rybak has expanded the crime problem, but his election didn’t cause the initial shift.

I can’t say what role the City Council has played in the crime problem. My guess is they haven’t played much of a role at all. DFL control of the City Council has been consistent for a long time. I think the same liberal ideas have been recycled in the City Council for a long time, I don’t see how now would be any different.

One last possible culprit is Sheriff Patrick D. McGowan, Hennepin County’s sheriff since 1994. Actually, that sentence pretty much clears Sheriff McGowan (as much as I don’t like it). Crime fell for the next 6 years while he was in office. I doubt his role caused the dramatic increase in violent crime in Minneapolis since 2001.

Having removed most of the other suspects (Judges, Corrections, National Trends, Mayor, Sheriff and size) we’re left with only a few possible conclusions. One, the District Attorney and her office are responsible or, two, there was several unknown/immeasurable causes to the fact that violent crime in Minneapolis has gone up at rates well above national averages. Either Amy Klobuchar can take credit for the decreases from 1999-2001 in violent crime and fess up to allowing the increases since 2001, or Klobuchar and her office had nothing to do with the recent increases in crime and can therefore not take credit for the previous decreases.

My explanation is two-fold; by not aggressively prosecuting criminals to the full extent of the law, the DA’s office has lowered the opportunity cost for committing crime enough so that criminals realize they commit crime without fear of punishment. The criminals the DA’s office were prosecuting in 1999 and 2000 were able to find their way back onto the streets less than two years later. The Minneapolis Police Department, under the supervision of the Mayor’s office and the Chief of Police, have adopted overly PC standards in regards to “Profiling” concerns enough so that the Mpls PD have been handcuffed in their ability to actively pursue criminals.

Those factors, combined with national trends have lead to the increase in violent crime in Minneapolis. Amy Klobuchar thus has no right to take credit for the net decrease in violent crime under her tenure. If anything, Klobuchar should be embarrassed for allowing crime in Minneapolis to increase above national averages, and allowing crime in Minneapolis to completely dwarf the crime rate just across the river in St. Paul. Minneapolis needs to get back to the basics when it comes to controlling crime: Strict enforcement and aggressive prosecution with long sentences for convicted criminals, especially first time violent offenders.

It’s time to set the record straight, Amy Klobuchar hasn’t helped the crime problem in her district at all.